The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) included in its latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) the forecast that inflation could follow a downward trend and reach monthly levels close to 1.5% in the first half of 2026, a sign that analysts expect a continuation of the deceleration process, although largely related to exchange rate stabilization and demand moderation. However, other external forecasts suggest that annual inflation for 2026 could be around moderate but not pressure-free figures, with estimates placing the increase at around 17%-19%. Nevertheless, the recent spike raises doubts about whether a solid downward path has been consolidated or if prices will continue to show high volatility in the coming months. What to expect in December and in 2026. Expectations for December 2025 point to a moderation in monthly inflation around 2.1%-2.2%, according to some consulting firms analyzing the first data of the last month of the year. If confirmed, this could allow 2025 to close with annual inflation close to 30%, a figure significantly lower than that observed in recent years, although still high by recent historical standards of the Argentine economy. For 2026, projections from international organizations and investment banks offer a mixed picture. After values above 200% during 2023, year-on-year inflation has been gradually decreasing since mid-2024, when the Government implemented intensive economic reforms, including the elimination of monetary issuance and deep fiscal adjustments. For example, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected in its most recent economic report that inflation in Argentina would remain high in 2026, above many official estimates, due to persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities and adjustments in relative prices without firm anchors. This scenario poses a two-way challenge for the authorities: on the one hand, to contain the inflationary dynamic without generating a strong recessionary shock, and on the other, to sustain market confidence in a context of structural reforms that still generate resistance in productive and social segments. The areas with the greatest impact on the increase in the CPI, such as food and regulated services, will continue to be under surveillance, both by analysts and by the Government itself, which will have to face the social and political pressure implied by high living costs in an election year and of key adjustments. With this data, the Consumer Price Index accumulated 31.4% in the last twelve months and 27.9% in the first eleven months of the year, figures that reflect not only the persistence of inflationary pressure but also the difficulty in consolidating a sustainable decline in the cost of living. November's data was above what several analysts had expected, who had projected a monthly inflation between 2.3% and 2.5%, according to estimates from private consulting firms that anticipated that factors such as the increase in regulated prices and food could maintain pressure on the CPI. In aggregate terms, the 31.4% year-on-year inflation represents an acceleration compared to October's 2.3% monthly, and provides a signal that the price dynamics has not yet found a firm anchor, despite the Government usually highlighting that current levels are much lower than in recent years. Buenos Aires, December 12, 2025 – Total News Agency-TNA- Inflation in Argentina accelerated again in November, with a monthly increase of 2.5%, reported today the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), confirming an upward price trend that worries both the Government and private analysts. The housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels sector was one of the ones that most pushed the November increase, followed by transport and food and non-alcoholic beverages, which maintain a high incidence in household pockets. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, stressed that, after almost two years of management, inflation remained at lower levels than in the recent past, highlighting that the fiscal and monetary policy implemented managed to cushion the fall in demand and maintain relative price stability in a context of structural adjustment. However, the same official implicitly acknowledged the complexity of the situation by pointing to the 'persistence of pressures' in key sectors of the economy, which are behind the recent acceleration of the CPI. The behavior of November can be interpreted as part of a broader process.
